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 [分享]推荐一本很好的书，Guns, Germs and Steel |
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Theme大侠能不能多说几句你是怎么判断"when they capitulate"的? -- 恍如隔世 - (54 Byte) 2006-5-09 周二, 09:49 (391 reads) |
Theme
头衔: 海归少校
加入时间: 2004/05/03
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作者：Theme 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
examples.
No.1. Steve Roach, a long term bond bear, declared that "bond yield would
remain for the forseeable future." on 5/31/05. That is three days before the bond yield made the historical low.
No 2. back in the last quarter of 1999. A couple of famous value managers were fired, including managers from Oakmark.
Pls notice here both Roach and those fund managers are employees.
We are talking about something different here w.r.t to WB and BM.
Take BM for example, he is vice chairman of LM. In fact, the whole LM
business were built based on his reputation.
I cannot think of BM getting fired. He also is not the kind to say "The commodity would stay high for a while". The best I can think of is we see massive redemption from his flagship fund. Legg Mason Value Trust.
In the case of WB, the best I can think of it BRK's stock lose 20% of its value.
Wild guess, since their situation are different from most economists or
fund managers.
作者：Theme 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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