due to the extreme leverage and you can get wiped
out even if you are right on the overall direction.
I think oil will stay above $45-48, short-term rate
will rise to 4.25% by year-end, long-bond will be over
5.25% by then. The carry-traders will unwind,
hi-yield bond fund could collapse by at least 25%,
same with REITS.
Be patient and wait for the deleveraging to happen
and some hedge fund to implode by end of 05.
