| 作者 |
 [转帖]警惕2007热钱：为2008年酝酿新亚洲金融风暴？ |
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“定海神针” -- sapientaf - (1181 Byte) 2007-1-28 周日, 08:34 (657 reads) |
halifax2008
头衔: 海归少校
加入时间: 2005/04/05
文章: 64
海归分: 13615
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作者：halifax2008 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
As Milton Friedman said, explanation of China economy is a Nobel prize problem. Give the infant and complicated financial condition, China policymakers have been facing multiple and sometimes conflicting ob<x>jectives. They include keeping strong growth, creating new jobs for millions, maintaining low inflation, reducing bad loans, maintaining a stable financial market (of course including volatile A share stock market), raising farmers' income and maintaining social stability(core part of building harmonious society).
It is almost an impossible mission! I don't think any central banker from the developed countries could make any difference if he/she is put in the china's position.
The only possible solution for all problems above is to keep economic growth strong and fast enough. Any adjustment of policies including cooling off stock markets lies in the realization of growth ob<x>jective and primarily the way national (not personal) wealth is accumulated.
In fact, China’s economy has already embarked on a slower growth trajectory (fixed asset investment was significantly down 16.8% yoy last Oct), the consequence of the tightening initiatives that have been put in place by the policy authorities in China over the past few months. I may safely draw a statement that the growth will continue but not as fast as last year. Regarding stock market, near-term correction is expected. But, it is unlikely to see the collapse of 2001. The policymakers also need an uptrend market to get more mid-size banks and other financial institutions listed in 07.
My biggest worry comes from the uncertainty of global financial market in 2007, especially for US economy. The strongly growing consumption from US contributes most to the growth of China economy. Currently, US market has become temporarily accepting of a Fed-on-hold scenario (see recent sell-off in bond market). But, Fed can not hold in a long period. Mixed economic data really confused everyone (including policymakers themselves) and neither continuous hiking nor start of easing is a good signal for this year's global market.
With no doubt, traders are facing a touchy year in 2007.
作者：halifax2008 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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