| 作者 |
 [新闻][转帖]Interest rates set to heat up as loonie soars this summer |
 |
科尔沁草原殿下
头衔: 海归少校
声望: 博导
性别: 
加入时间: 2007/03/04
文章: 2263
来自: 哲里木盟科尔沁左翼中旗木里图苏木爱搞不搞嘎差
海归分: 25873
|
|
|
作者：科尔沁草原殿下 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Bank of Canada chief David Dodge expresses discomfort over dollar's rise
HEATHER SCOFFIELD
ECONOMICS REPORTER
June 14, 2007
Canadians should expect interest rates to creep up this summer, in spite of the high-flying dollar.
Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said yesterday higher rates would come soon, but suggested the case for sustained rate increases is not so clear-cut, mainly because of the soaring loonie.
Inflation and economic growth have both been stronger than the central bank anticipated, Mr. Dodge said, but at the same time the currency is also surprisingly robust.
"Since April, we have seen two things: an increased risk of future inflation and a rise in the Canadian dollar that appears to have been stronger than historical experience would have suggested," he said yesterday in St. John's.
Print Edition - Section Front
Enlarge Image
"You have two forces that are sort of competing," he added to reporters.
He also warned that the increasing numbers of baby boomers leaving the labour force in the next few years will hurt the economy's ability to grow without inflation getting out of control.
It was his first public appearance since May 29, when he said interest rates will likely soon have to rise in order to stifle inflationary pressure. (The bank's next rate-setting occurs July 10. The key interest rate has been on hold for a year, at 4.25 per cent.) But in the May announcement, he purposely ignored the rising Canadian dollar, essentially giving traders a green light to drive the currency higher without the central bank stepping in with monetary policy. The loonie took flight, touching 95 cents (U.S.), before settling back to close at 93.76 cents yesterday.
Mr. Dodge suggested he was not comfortable with the rapid rise. Most of the dollar's appreciation over the past few years has been justified by rising commodity prices, strong economic growth in Canada, and global demand for Canadian goods and services.
But the appreciation since the beginning of April has been less clear, he said, although he did not go as far as to say it was unjustified. Part of the increase has been a stronger demand for Canadian dollars because of foreign takeovers, he said, but added that it is impossible to quantify by how much.
"There's probably been some outside pressure," he told the audience after his speech. "How big a factor it is, it is probably impossible to tell."
Still, he said the fast pace of merger-and-acquisition activity in Canada and around the world is nothing to be alarmed about, since changes in corporate organization are usually a source of productivity and more efficient use of labour and capital over the long run, Mr. Dodge said.
What he is concerned about, however, is inflation. Services prices are increasing by significantly more than two per cent a year, and even goods prices are on the rise.
"Some of this strength may prove to be temporary. Nonetheless, there is an increased risk that future inflation will persist above the 2-per-cent inflation target," he said.
Housing prices in particular have been surprisingly inflationary, he told reporters.
Last October, the central bank had projected that housing prices, which feed into the bank's measures of inflation, "would begin to abate during the course of 2007. So far we haven't seen nearly as much abatement as we had expected," he told the St. John's audience. "Maybe it's still to come."
In April, housing prices at a national level jumped 8.9 per cent from a year earlier, Statistics Canada said this week.
Mr. Dodge's comments make the case for a rate hike in July, but anything more than that is up in the air, and looks less likely now than a few weeks ago, said Dale Orr, chief economist with Global Insight (Canada).
"He's certainly leaning toward July ... but I think he's trying to say to these people who think two rate increases are in the cards, 'just take it easy.' "
Mr. Dodge said the recent surge in the Canadian dollar could not be easily explained, but at the same time warned not to get too exercised about short-term movements in the currency.
Currency markets and bond markets around the world, not just in Canada, "have been very volatile" in the past two months, Mr. Dodge noted.
"One needs to be very careful not to interpret necessarily these day-to-day and week-to-week movements as a long term trend," he said, and instead "keep an eye on ... all the elements that are going on out there."
作者：科尔沁草原殿下 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
|
|
|
| 返回顶端 |
|
 |
|
-
 [新闻][转帖]Interest rates set to heat up as loonie soars this summer -- 科尔沁草原殿下 - (4662 Byte) 2007-6-16 周六, 12:22 (1005 reads)
|
|
|
|
您不能在本论坛发表新主题, 不能回复主题, 不能编辑自己的文章, 不能删除自己的文章, 不能发表投票, 您 不可以 发表活动帖子在本论坛, 不能添加附件不能下载文件, |
|
|
