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 海补班作业系列: 奢侈品零售业在中国的处境 |
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snowbird
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作者：游客 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
海补班作业系列: 奢侈品零售业在中国的处境
原文要点：
1 几种奢侈品(已经进入中国市场的)
具有设计品牌的服装，名表和珠宝(存在问题的)
车，手机，一些消费品(例如大家最近讨论的哈根达思)( 已经较成功的)
2 一个误区(为什么要进入)
中国的人口数量是吸引外国商人的一个最重要因素。引用原文的一句话“哇，10亿人呢” 。再加上中国近
些年的高速发展。这样导致了他们对中国市场的期望过高(个人认为这是因为他们对中国的不了解造成的
。也是海龟们可以发挥作用的地方之一) 。但实际上这在中国是个长线投资。据Morgan Stanley 的报告
，大部分品牌至少在五年之后才能见到回报。
据估计，中国的奢侈品消费群体大概最终能达到一个亿，大概相等于现有的中产阶层的大小。但是现在
的消费群体也就1 千三百万. 也就是说，商家们要想充分利用中国市场，还要等这批人有了足够的购买
奢侈品的能力。
3 三重困难
· 影响中国大陆奢侈品市场的一个很大的因素是来自香港市场的竞争.大陆市场存在10%到35%的关
税, 这样一来价格比香港要贵很多.另外很多中国人在心理上更享受在大陆以外的地方购物.
· 中国假货的泛滥给那些靠品牌做生意的造成了很大的影响.
· 中国奢侈品主要还定位在男士的买家上. 但是男士购买占主导地位的形势已经发生了变化,即从
90年代初的90%跌到了60%.
注意: 虽然形势仍然不乐观,但是这些公司却并不想退出. 原因是他们想提前抢占市场,开始灌输他们的
品牌.
一点感想:
看来找到合适的市场切入点是非常重要的. 中国的市场是大,但是目前来说还并不适合太高档又没有太多
实用价值的奢侈品. 中国近些年来发展的很快,也出现了很多富人,但是这些人大都是自己辛辛苦苦打拼
出来的. 对于购买这些华而不实的奢侈品, 虽然经济上已没有问题,但是心理上还承受不起. 人说三代才
成贵族就是这个道理. 这些商品的消费是需要有贵族心理做底的.
而对于一些低档的奢侈品,中国确是个很好的市场.这已经被大家以前讨论的很多案例所证实.
近年来有不少国外的大公司进入中国市场, 有些是赔本进来的,没想着现在赚钱,只想先把市场抢占下一
部分,然后伺机大举进入. 本文提到的一些商家只是其中一部分. 还有其他领域如出版界的贝塔斯曼等.
原文如下:
Luxury Retailers
May Wait Years
For China's Payoff
By LESLIE CHANG
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
BEIJING -- Will China's moneyed class boost the bottom lines of the world's luxury brands? Don't bet on it just yet, a new report says.
Makers of designer clothing, watches and jewelry are pouring into China, the world's fastest-growing major economy. Established players such as Ermenegildo Zegna and Louis Vuitton are expanding, while newer entrants like Bulgari and Coach are joining the fray; in April, a Giorgio Armani flagship store is set to open on Shanghai's Bund.
With its fast-rising incomes and unapologetic taste for conspicuous consumption, China would appear to be a fantasy market for the world's deluxe labels seeking to offset the maturing of the U.S., European and Japanese markets.
But a report by Morgan Stanley says the real payoff for these companies is still years away. While a sliver of China's new rich might be willing to spring for a $3,600 Louis Vuitton handbag or an $87,000 Cartier men's platinum watch encrusted with diamonds, demand for and knowledge of these brands is still limited. And with China's import tariffs on luxury goods ranging from 10% to 35%, on top of value-added and other taxes, many Chinese prefer to do their high-end shopping in Hong Kong.
"It's a common mistake that foreigners make. They go in and think, 'Wow, one billion people.' Their hopes are too high," says Angela Moh, an executive director for Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong and a co-author of the report, "Luxury Goods in China: A Long-Term Investment." The report, published last month, asserts that "payback for most brands [is] at least five years away."
The report estimates that China's luxury-goods consumers could eventually number 100 million -- roughly the current size of the country's middle class. Bulgari has said China could account for more than 10% of its sales in a decade, compared with less than 0.5% now; Gucci says its sales in Asia outside of Japan could, over the same period, almost triple to 30% of total sales, with China as the key driver. China could come to represent for luxury brands what it already is for successful sellers of cars, cellphones and consumer goods: A significant contributor to global sales and profit.
But for now, industry estimates place the market's size at about 1% of the population, or about 13 million people. The brands are fighting for the same handful of ultra-rich people spread out over different cities.
Still, companies feel they can't afford not to be in China, both to start building brands and to grab the best retail spots, which are limited in each city to a few places, usually the toniest hotels or shopping malls.
A big factor weighing on China's luxury market is the accessibility of Hong Kong. Along with lower prices, Hong Kong's designer stores offer a broader and often more up-to-date range of products than their mainland counterparts. Many consumers enjoy the cachet of buying goods while traveling abroad. Some luxury brands get as much as one-third of their Hong Kong sales from mainland visitors, according to the report.
That puts the brands in a quandary. They can either bring prices in their China stores in line with Hong Kong and watch their profit margins shrink, or charge higher prices in China and take a hit in sales. A wide pricing gap also encourages parallel importing, or the purchase of products in Hong Kong for unauthorized resale in China, the report cautions. Separately, the report says the prevalence of counterfeit goods in China doesn't have a big impact on sales but does hurt the brands' exclusive image.
The China market has other quirks. Unlike in the West, China's luxury industry is heavily skewed toward male buyers -- entrepreneurs, senior executives and officials buying either for themselves or as gifts. The biggest beneficiaries include Hugo Boss, Dunhill, Zegna and Givenchy. But the dominance of male-purchasing is declining. Men's goods account for about 60% of all luxury-goods sales, down from 90% during the early 1990s, Morgan Stanley says. "Five or 10 years ago, it was all men. It's changing now," Ms. Moh says.
In contrast, jewelry might be a tougher market to crack with its reliance on female shoppers and its high import tariffs; pearls and precious stones, for example, carry tariffs of 35%. In addition, the report says, it is harder to identify a branded piece of jewelry compared with, say, a watch or a handbag, making it a less-attractive purchase. The traditional Chinese preference for gold over other types of jewelry might also inhibit growth.
How, then, to invest in China's growing appetite for luxury? There aren't many listed options. Anne Ling, an analyst at HSBC Securities Asia, says she is paying closer attention to several listed Hong Kong jewelry stores that do some sales to Chinese visitors, though she says she doesn't formally cover those companies. She isn't keen on Ports Design, a Hong Kong-listed designer and manufacturer that sells expensive clothing in retail outlets around China, because she feels inventory levels are high.
Yang Liu, managing director for Atlantis Investment Management (HK), likes Zhejiang Ruan's Pearl & Jewelry, which plans to be listed on China's domestic stock market next year. The company is China's largest maker of pearls; its products can compete globally with Japanese pearl producers while the company has a strong position in China's domestic market, she says.
Overall, though, Ms. Liu says the dearth of options shows that this type of investment is premature. "Luxury goods will be the future," she says. "But it will take a few years to get there."
Updated March 16, 2004
作者：游客 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 海补班作业系列: 奢侈品零售业在中国的处境 -- snowbird - (6810 Byte) 2004-3-18 周四, 12:34 (2338 reads) - 谁来卖奢侈品 -- 牛仔 - (532 Byte) 2004-3-19 周五, 12:37 (282 reads)
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